Most Philippine destinations have a wet season worth planning around. Subic has one worth planning around carefully, because the gap between the two halves of the year is extreme — the driest month averages two rainy days, the wettest averages twenty-three.
The good news is that the data here is unusually solid. PAGASA runs a weather station at Cubi Point, inside the Freeport itself, so the numbers below describe this bay rather than a regional approximation.
The short answer
- December to April is the best window overall — almost no rain, lowest humidity, calm north-easterly winds.
- February and March are the sweet spot, after the coolest weather and before the April heat.
- November to May is the dive season, when visibility and sea conditions are most reliable.
- June to October is wet, green and cheap, with afternoon downpours and around nine to ten thunderstorm days a month.
Two seasons, and very little in between
Subic sits in a PAGASA Type I climate zone: two pronounced seasons, dry from November to April and wet from May to October, facing the West Philippine Sea and directly exposed to the southwest monsoon.
The dry season is genuinely dry. January through April average between 4.5 and 18.2 mm of rain per month, across only two or three rainy days. That is close to nothing. The wet season is just as genuinely wet: July, August and September each clear 680 mm, and the annual total is about 3,493 mm.
Temperature, by contrast, barely moves. Mean monthly temperature ranges only from 26.9 °C in January to 29.8 °C in April. What actually changes through the year is rain, humidity and wind direction.
Month by month
Climatological normals for the Cubi Point station inside the Freeport, period of record 1994–2020.
| Month | Rain (mm) | Rainy days | Max (°C) | Min (°C) | Humidity | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 5.1 | 2 | 31.2 | 22.5 | 67% | ENE |
| February | 4.5 | 2 | 32.1 | 22.7 | 66% | ENE |
| March | 13.2 | 2 | 33.6 | 23.6 | 65% | ENE |
| April | 18.2 | 3 | 34.7 | 25.0 | 66% | ENE |
| May | 301.6 | 10 | 33.6 | 25.4 | 73% | SW |
| June | 470.3 | 16 | 32.0 | 24.9 | 79% | SW |
| July | 805.1 | 21 | 31.1 | 24.4 | 82% | SW |
| August | 864.0 | 23 | 30.5 | 24.4 | 83% | SW |
| September | 680.2 | 19 | 30.9 | 24.3 | 83% | SW |
| October | 225.1 | 11 | 31.8 | 24.2 | 77% | ENE |
| November | 73.2 | 5 | 31.9 | 24.0 | 73% | ENE |
| December | 32.6 | 4 | 31.3 | 23.4 | 70% | ENE |
What the wind is doing
The wind flips with the monsoon, and it matters more here than the temperature does. From October through April the prevailing wind is east-north-easterly — the amihan, the northeast monsoon. From May through September it swings south-westerly, the habagat.
Sailors care about this in the opposite direction to everyone else: the bay is favoured for sailing sports particularly during the habagat, when the rest of the calendar says stay home.
Typhoons, and the shelter myth
The Philippine typhoon season overlaps the wet season and is commonly described as peaking from July to September. Subic Bay is genuinely sheltered — the Zambales mountains on the western side of the harbour are the reason the US Navy used the bay as a typhoon refuge, and SBMA’s own investment materials lean on it.
When everyone else comes
The single busiest period is Holy Week, and it is not close. The Freeport recorded 408,800 tourist arrivals during Holy Week 2025, up 14.8% year on year, with hotel occupancy running at 99%.
If your dates are fixed to that week, book far ahead. If they are not, move them.
The case for coming in the wet season
It is not a write-off, and the rain has a shape you can plan around: mornings are often clear, with the heaviest rain arriving in the afternoon.
- The forest is at its greenest, and the waterfalls and rivers are actually running.
- Room rates drop, and the Freeport is noticeably emptier.
- The bay stays comparatively sheltered even when the coast outside is rough.
- Against that: underwater visibility drops, outer-bay dive sites can close in rough weather, and you should expect to lose some afternoons.
Common questions
What is the rainiest month in Subic Bay?
August, by a clear margin — an average of 864 mm of rain across 23 rainy days, according to PAGASA normals for the Cubi Point station inside the Freeport. July and September are close behind at 805 mm and 680 mm.
When is the dry season in Subic Bay?
November to April, and it is genuinely dry. January through April average between 4.5 and 18.2 mm of rain per month across only two or three rainy days each.
Is Subic Bay safe during typhoon season?
The bay is naturally sheltered by the Zambales mountains, which is why the US Navy used it as a typhoon refuge, but that protects the harbour rather than the region. Heavy monsoon rain, landslides on the forest slopes and travel disruption are all realistic during the July-to-September peak. Check conditions before travelling.
When is the best time to dive in Subic Bay?
November to May, during the amihan. Dive operators describe this as the main season, with the most reliable visibility and sea conditions. Wet-season diving is possible but visibility drops and outer-bay sites can close in rough weather.
How hot does Subic Bay get?
April is the hottest month, averaging a daily maximum of 34.7 °C. January is the coolest, averaging 31.2 °C by day and 22.5 °C at night. Temperature varies far less across the year than rainfall does.
Sources
Every factual claim above traces to one of these. Where sources disagree — or where we could not confirm something — the piece says so rather than choosing the tidier version.
